The calculator that shows how xenophobia can hurt the world (cup).
Title odds estimated from each nation's FIFA ranking through the World Cup cycle — then see what happens when a team can't count on its migrant players. Tap a flag for the breakdown. The 32 teams of the Round of 32.
1. Base favoritism = softmax(FIFA points) across the 32 Round-of-32 teams — the real pecking order of the World Cup cycle, not an official probability. Squad strength = average overall of the starting XI (top 11 available ratings); empty slots drop to a level-62 reserve. Remove the migrants and the XI weakens, so the odds fall hard with it — odds × (strength_without ÷ strength_full)^7. A team with no migrants to lose doesn't move; the total drops below 100%, and that gap is the cost of xenophobia.
2. Ratings: EA FC 26 overalls matched to the official 2026 World Cup squads (86% by name; the rest estimated from market value). Migrant definition: born abroad only mostly hits African teams built in Europe; incl. 2nd generation hits the European powers.
⚠️ Data honesty: no database lists the birthplace of all 1,248 players. So the migrant flag is hand-verified for the decisive teams (green badge) and the 8 that sources confirm 100% home-grown (blue badge). Where coverage is partial (gray badge), the ranking shows but removal isn't applied — to avoid inventing data. Flag/count sources: USA TODAY, bet365, Foreign Policy.