Own Goal · FIFA + EA FC 26

Own Goal

The calculator that shows how xenophobia can hurt the world (cup).

Title odds from each nation's FIFA ranking through the World Cup cycle — then what happens when a team can't count on its migrant players. The 32 teams of the Round of 32. Tap any team for the breakdown.

⚡ The experiment

Take a team's migrant players off the pitch and watch its title odds collapse. This switch is the whole point of Own Goal.

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Migrant definition

Migrants in the jersey of their roots

How it works

1. Base favoritism = softmax(FIFA points) across the 32 Round-of-32 teams — the real pecking order of the World Cup cycle, not an official probability. Squad strength = average overall of the starting XI (top 11 available ratings); empty slots drop to a level-62 reserve. Remove the migrants and the XI weakens, so the odds fall hard with it — odds × (strength_without ÷ strength_full)^7. A team with no migrants to lose doesn't move; the total drops below 100%, and that gap is the cost of xenophobia.

2. Ratings: EA FC 26 overalls matched to the official 2026 World Cup squads (86% by name; the rest estimated from market value). Migrant definition: born abroad only mostly hits African teams built in Europe; incl. 2nd generation hits the European powers.

⚠️ Data honesty: no database lists the birthplace of all 1,248 players. So the migrant flag is hand-verified for the decisive teams (green badge) and the 8 that sources confirm 100% home-grown (blue badge). Where coverage is partial (gray badge), the ranking shows but removal isn't applied — to avoid inventing data. Flag/count sources: USA TODAY, bet365, Foreign Policy.

A project by Artur Scartazzini and Diego Vieira — migrants. 🌍